VIEWPOINT: Is civilisation sustainable?

This month’s column examines a recent NASA-backed study that states that the fall of the Roman Empire and the equally (if not more) advanced Han, Mauryan, and Gupta empires, as well as so many advanced Mesopotamian empires, all bears testimony to the fact that advanced, sophisticated, complex, and creative civilisations can be both fragile and…

VIEWPOINT: Habitual overconfidence

One of the most common behavioural biases is the tendency to be overoptimistic. Like the children in Garrison Keillor’s Lake Wobegon who are all above average, we tend to overestimate our own skills and chances of success. This overestimation, in turn, leads to overly positive self-evaluations, which are often unrealistic – resulting in overconfidence. Confidence…

VIEWPOINT: Is offshore best?

Offshore equities are looking increasingly attractive: the MSCI World Index returned 39,7 per cent in rand terms during 2013. However, with the rand’s recent depreciation, emotions are once again running high, with fear and greed rampant and herd behaviour becoming evident. And to compound the excitement, it’s election time again. At the start of 2014,…